A farmer's 148-year-old prediction came true 🤯

Samuel Benner’s astonishing forecast, how to improve conversions rates on B2B webpages, how to create ICPs, why you should use gross profit to measure LTV, and more.

Karthik Subramanian

Mar 24
9 min read

So, what’s astonishing about it?
Conclusion
The Best Marketing Tips On LinkedIn This Week 📝
What’s cooking in SaaS and startups this week? 🍳
Events you should be attending this week 🤝

Hi folks 👋

Disclaimer: This newsletter is not about stocks.

But, I HAD to share a 150-year-old prediction with you – one that foresaw today’s sombre economic mood.

Samuel Benner, an Ohio farmer, had suffered losses in the 1873 financial crisis.

Later in 1875, he began studying crop cycles and published a book on business and commodity prices.

Benner found that pig iron prices peaked in intervals of 8, 9, and 10 years and repeat.
Troughs occurred in intervals of 7, 11, and 9 years and repeat.

He even concluded that prices of these commodities were impacted by 11-year solar cycles.

In the picture below, he’s marked the years of ‘panic’, ‘good times,’ and ‘hard times.’

So, what’s astonishing about it?

Benner got his prediction nearly right: 2007 was a ‘good time’ to sell stocks. The market crashed in 2008.

He was almost correct with the prediction in 2019 (2020 was a ‘panic’ year – we all know why).

And so far, 2023 looks like a period of ‘hard times.’

P.S. For those of us interested in reading it, here’s the link to Benner’s book.

Conclusion

Benner’s cycle shouldn’t used to make investments because there’s no evidence of planetary influence on financial markets (unless you believe in astrology).

But, markets and economic mood impact everybody. If markets are down, spending is probably down. That means marketers need to be cautious about budgets and spend.

The Best Marketing Tips On LinkedIn This Week 📝

Ben Goodey spoke to Monday.com insiders to know how their 8-year ad spend fuelled their SEO strategy. (Hint: prioritization is key in SEO, and ship new content before it’s fully edited).
The top B2B homepages have ~11% conversion rates. So, if you’re not there, Emily Kramer suggests making these 16 changes to your website.
Everybody tells you to create ICPs. But nobody tells you how to do it. Robert Kaminski shows exactly that with Asana’s example of Head of Marketing persona. It can’t be any more simpler.
Andrei Zinkevich is back with his sage-like ABM advice. He explains the 9 steps to implement an ABM program from scratch.
Overcoming objections near your CTA buttons can help in conversions. Theo Ohene explains it with a simple picture.
If you’re a podcaster, you can make your podcast into an email-spinning machine. Matt Ragland shows you how do it.
James Camp says 90% of LinkedIn posts on AI are nonsense. But, knowing how to use these tools could land you a job or help grow your business.

What’s cooking in SaaS and startups this week? 🍳

If you think cutting back on customer success is a good way to reduce spending, Jason Lemkin explains how to enable them to work for themselves and your business. (Caution: Get them to start thinking about revenues).
Using revenue to measure LTV is a grave mistake. Instead, use gross profit to know if your customers are viable in the long run or not, says Ryan Rouse.

Events you should be attending this week 🤝

If you’re in B2B fighting long sales cycles, then you should sign up for Fullfunnel.io’s Annual Summit. The kind of speakers Andrei and Vlad have lined up at the event is just mind-boggling.

Until next time folks! Missed our earlier coverage? Binge read it now:

Peace and Love 🙏

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